The EUR/GBP pair tracks the exchange rate between the euro (EUR) and the British pound (GBP). Today, heightened volatility is anticipated for the euro, as ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the 10th Annual ECB Research Conference, followed by a speech from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. These events may offer key signals regarding future monetary policy in the Eurozone. In addition, Eurozone CPI figures remain a major focus, as persistent inflation continues to shape expectations for ECB rate decisions. On the UK front, traders are watching inflation-related data, including CPI, Core CPI, RPI, and HPI, which are likely to shed light on the Bank of England’s policy direction. With significant economic events from both regions overlapping, sharp moves in EUR/GBP should be expected.

On the H4 timeframe, EUR/GBP has been trading inside a wide symmetrical triangle for nearly two months, repeatedly testing both its bullish and bearish boundaries. Recently, the pair experienced a strong bullish push with two consecutive green candles but quickly retraced after touching the long-term descending trendline between the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, halting further upside momentum. This price behavior underscores the importance of the triangle pattern as a zone of struggle between buyers and sellers. The pair has touched both trendlines at least three times without a breakout, and with the triangle’s apex aligning near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, a decisive breakout appears imminent.

Support and Resistance:

Support: Key support is located at 0.8654, where the ascending trendline meets the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, providing a strong area for buyers to step in.

Resistance: Major resistance sits at 0.8696, in line with the long-term descending trendline and just under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Conclusion and Considerations:

Technical analysis of the EUR/GBP H4 chart indicates a pair trapped in a narrowing triangle, with both bulls and bears guarding crucial Fibonacci zones. Short-term moving averages favor continued upward movement, while the Williams %R suggests a possible pause or pullback before any breakout. Given today’s ECB speeches, Eurozone inflation data, and upcoming UK price reports, traders should watch closely for a breakout near the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The direction of the eventual breakout is likely to determine the medium-term trend for EUR/GBP.