XAU/USD on the H1 timeframe remains in a clear bullish market structure, with a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since late August.
- The latest impulsive rally pushed price into a new high near 3800 before entering a shallow correction.
- No confirmed bearish market structure shift (MSS) has occurred yet – meaning the uptrend remains intact.
Liquidity & Key Levels
- Buy-Side Liquidity: Above 3800 – 3820 (resting stops from previous high – likely next target).
- Sell-Side Liquidity: Below 3720 – 3700 (previous HLs – potential stop hunt before continuation).
Premium & Discount Zones
Using Fibonacci retracement of the latest bullish leg:
- The discount zone (0.5 – 0.618) lies between 3730 – 3700.
- This zone represents an optimal trade entry (OTE) for smart money to reload long positions.
Next Probable Targets
Primary Scenario (Bullish Continuation):
- Price may dip into 3730 – 3700 discount zone → accumulate orders → rally toward 3800 – 3820 to sweep buy-side liquidity.
Alternative Scenario (Bearish Shift):
- A confirmed break and close below 3680 would indicate a market structure shift and open the door for a deeper correction toward 3600 demand zone.