On both the H1 (1-Hour) and M30 (30-Minute) charts, the overall market structure remains bullish, with price action forming higher highs (HHs) and higher lows (HLs). The most recent strong rally occurred on September 22, pushing price to a new swing high around $3780. Following this peak, the market entered a corrective phase and is currently consolidating within a defined range.
Structure
Major Structure (H1): Bullish. The last Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the upside, favoring long positions.
Internal Structure (M30): Displays a short-term corrective downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows forming after the swing high. This indicates the correction is still in progress.
Liquidity
- Buy-Side Liquidity: Significant liquidity rests above the $3780 swing high, where many stop-loss orders are likely clustered. This remains a long-term target.
- Sell-Side Liquidity: Around $3715, relative equal lows create a pocket of sell-side liquidity. It is likely the market will sweep this liquidity before resuming higher.
Imbalance / Fair Value Gap (FVG)
During the sharp rally on September 22, an imbalance formed between $3710 – $3730. According to Smart Money Concepts, price often retraces to fill such gaps before continuing in the main trend direction.
Points of Interest (POI)
Bullish Order Block: Just below the imbalance zone, between $3700 – $3710, lies a potential bullish order block. This area may act as a strong support where institutional buyers could accumulate long positions.
Short-Term Target (High Probability Scenario):
Price is expected to clear the liquidity at $3715, then retrace into the $3710 – $3700 FVG/Order Block zone. This corrective move would provide Smart Money with more favorable entry levels for long positions.
Long-Term Target (After Correction):
Following a reaction from the support zone, the broader bullish trend is likely to resume. The key objective is a breakout above $3780, capturing the buy-side liquidity and forming new highs.
Conclusion
Based on Smart Money Concepts, the most probable near-term path for XAUUSD is a move toward the $3715 – $3700 zone. This corrective dip would reset price efficiency, enabling a stronger continuation of the bullish trend. Ultimately, a push above $3780 remains the primary upside target.