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On both the H1 (1-Hour) and M30 (30-Minute) charts, EURUSD is clearly in a bearish structure. Since reaching a swing high around 1.1900 on September 16, the pair has consistently formed lower highs (LHs) and lower lows (LLs), confirming a downward trend. On September 24, price broke below a significant support level, creating a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, which further validates bearish momentum.
Structure
- Major Structure (H1): Bearish. The downside BOS confirms strong selling pressure and the continuation of the downtrend.
- Internal Structure (M30): Shows corrective pullbacks but remains aligned with the broader bearish trajectory.
Liquidity
- Buy-Side Liquidity: Clusters of liquidity sit above minor swing highs formed during the decline, particularly in the 1.1770 – 1.1820 range. A short pullback to this zone could be used to sweep liquidity before resuming lower.
- Sell-Side Liquidity: Key liquidity pools lie beneath the 1.1640 low (September 25) and more importantly below the 1.1600 psychological support, where significant sell-side stops are likely positioned.
Imbalance / Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The sharp decline on September 24 created a Fair Value Gap between 1.1720 – 1.1750. According to Smart Money Concepts, price often retraces to such inefficiencies before continuing in the dominant trend direction.
Points of Interest (POI)
Bearish Order Block: Within and slightly above the FVG zone (1.1750 – 1.1770), a bearish order block is present. This zone represents where institutional sellers may look to re-enter short positions.
Short-Term Target (High-Probability Scenario):
Price is likely to retrace toward the 1.1720 – 1.1750 FVG/Order Block zone, sweeping liquidity and filling imbalance before resuming lower.
Next Downside Targets:
- Initial Target: Liquidity below 1.1640 (recent swing low).
- Primary Target: The 1.1600 psychological and technical support level, which acts as a stronger magnet due to concentrated sell-side liquidity.
Conclusion
Based on Smart Money Concepts, EURUSD remains in a clear bearish trajectory. After a possible corrective pullback to the 1.1720 – 1.1750 zone, the market is expected to continue its decline, first targeting 1.1640, and then the more significant 1.1600 level.